Comment On Sector Timing in an Up Market.
www.SelectSectors.com     3/03/2000

Several E-mail requests have been received about   switching between sectors.   First you have to decide which scenario is in progress.     (i.e.) Up, Sideways or Down   At present(3/03/2000) the trend is Up so the below is a suggestion   for consideration for the "Up" market sectors.   The below charts are for the past 120 market Days.

          Bio-Tech Up 150% in 100 market days.
          Technology Up 130% in 100 market days.
          Dev-Comp Up 130% in 100 market days.
          Electronics Up 115% in 100 market days.
          Computers Up 100% in 100 market days.
 

  Inspection of these charts show that for the
 entire Uptrend in progress, the two-week exponential
 moving average has been above the four-week
 exponential moving average, for EACH chart.
 When this reverses, (i.e.) the two-week average
  moves below, the four-week average , a switch
 out of this sector will preserve most of the gain.

  Another observation from these charts is that
  a quasi-measure of associated sector risk is
  the vertical distance of the sector NAV value
  minus the corresponding four week average.
  It should be noted at present it appears to be
  at a maximum value, which implies growing risk.

  Because of this you might want to augment the above
  by switching out when the NAV value drops below the
  two-week average by a certain percentage. (ie) 5 or 
8%  Or whatever you feel comfortable with.
  Basically this would act as a trailing stop.
 

  The above is just my interpretation of the
  chart data, it is not intended or offered
  as market trading advice. Each investor
  must make and act upon their own decisions.