Email response to
questions about CCP and data mining
( 12/11/09 )
Recently I received several requests asking about the new data mining results that are posted on the Cruise Control Portfolio (CCP) web page.
Background:
I have collected a vast compilation of trading symbols, from reliable sources. Written code to rank all of these trading symbols by the best algorithms ( Black Boxes ) I know of. This ranking process over different time intervals produces volumes of results. Data mining techniques were programmed and applied to find the strongest trading symbols.
Finding the Best:
I then use stockcharts.com performance option to form comparative PERF charts. Usually you will find that this results in two classes of results. One class is the big-gainers and the other is the moderate-gainers. The magnitude of the CCP ranking scores defines these different classes of performance results.
Subjective Part:
A personal decision I make is to throw out any trade symbol that has posted astronomical gains. (eg) HGSI 2,100% in 260 market days.
I then select trade symbols that have strong gains and display the least amount of variation ( volatility), I just purchase a few of the best each week.
Portfolio Management:
The mathematics of portfolio management state that you should have at about 30 positions to obtain optimum results. Presently I have 43 open positions.
Position Size:
Position size is how you control risk. I try to have equal dollar positions for every trade. Numerous small positions are safer then a few large dollar positions.
Market Timing:
I do not believe you can be long the market all the time as trading is only profitable when the market is trending. So I will scale into and out of the market depending on current market conditions. When the market declines you can employ the various short ETFs. But shorting is difficult because the market declines very rapidly and usually on it’s way down exhibits some very strong spikes Up.
Why Bother:
This process is time consuming and requires some effort. On a personal note, over many years, I have subscribed to numerous advisories, in one case a $2,000 letter. I found all of them to completely useless and just full of hype.
Some Examples:
Listed below are the current CCP and data mining results and some charts that illustrate the above procedures.
Some top CCP Data Mining Results
( For information only and are not recommendations )
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?GBU.TO,CYTX,BTO.TO,HL
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?NI,ECH,MOO,SPY
Data Mining results from processing the top CCP results for all data sets over different time frames.
( 12/11/09 )
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 36.43
1 Score = 16.67 Vel = -0.79 Accel = -0.07 GBU.TO Gabriel Resources
1 Score = 19.76 Vel = 0.47 Accel = -0.17 GBU.TO Gabriel Resources
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 35.691 Score = 17.44 Vel = -0.53 Accel = -0.70 CYTX cytori Thearp
1 Score = 18.25 Vel = 5.96 Accel = 0.28 CYTX cytori Thearp
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 33.381 Score = 14.87 Vel = -0.05 Accel = -0.40 BTO.TO B2Gold
1 Score = 18.51 Vel = 3.55 Accel = 0.11 BTO.TO B2Gold
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 31.31
1 Score = 15.78 Vel = 0.34 Accel = 0.07 PCLN Priceline
1 Score = 15.53 Vel = 0.84 Accel = -0.02 PCLN Priceline
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 25.25
1 Score = 13.23 Vel = 2.88 Accel = 0.62 HGSI Human Genome
1 Score = 12.02 Vel = -2.63 Accel = -0.33 HGSI Human Genome
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 25.151 Score = 12.84 Vel = -1.20 Accel = -0.21 HL Helca Mining
1 Score = 12.31 Vel = 1.08 Accel = -0.04 HL Helca Mining
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 23.261 Score = 12.38 Vel = 1.05 Accel = 0.07 NI NiSource
1 Score = 10.88 Vel = 1.30 Accel = 0.07 NI NiSource
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 18.851 Score = 8.54 Vel = 1.18 Accel = 0.20 ECH Chile
1 Score = 10.31 Vel = 0.10 Accel = -0.01 ECH Chile
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 20.171 Score = 10.56 Vel = 1.07 Accel = 0.23 EAC Encore
1 Score = 9.61 Vel = -0.01 Accel = -0.01 EAC Encore
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 16.601 Score = 10.14 Vel = 0.17 Accel = -0.01 MOO Global Agribusiness
1 Score = 6.46 Vel = 0.47 Accel = 0.00 MOO Global Agribusiness
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 12.30
1 Score = 7.52 Vel = 1.04 Accel = 0.28 EDC Emerging Markets
1 Score = 4.78 Vel = 0.60 Accel = 0.02 EDC Emerging Markets
Sum of short and medium CCP scores = 8.91
1 Score = 5.71 Vel = 0.19 Accel = 0.06 SPY S&P 500
1 Score = 3.20 Vel = 0.04 Accel = -0.01 SPY S&P 500
CCP Maximum Scores Follow:
( 30 day CCP time span ending 12/11/09 )
Note: Negative velocity and acceleration implies current weakness.
http://stockcharts.com/charts/performance/perf.html?CMFO,HNT,CAAS,AMD,CYTX,III.TO,GOL,GBU.TO,DAL
1 Score = 20.49 Vel = 2.43 Accel = -0.04 CMFO China Marine Food
2 Score = 19.32 Vel = 1.39 Accel = 0.10 HNT Health Net
3 Score = 18.83 Vel = 1.31 Accel = 0.03 CAAS China Automotive
4 Score = 18.74 Vel = 2.11 Accel = 0.09 AMD Advanced Micro Dev
5 Score = 17.44 Vel = -0.53 Accel = -0.70 CYTX Cytori Thearp
6 Score = 17.44 Vel = -0.53 Accel = -0.70 CYTX Cytori Thearp
7 Score = 17.44 Vel = -0.53 Accel = -0.70 CYTX cytori Thearp
8 Score = 16.83 Vel = 7.54 Accel = 0.97 III.TO Imperial Metals
9 Score = 16.72 Vel = 1.74 Accel = 0.10 GOL GOL Linkas
10 Score = 16.67 Vel = -0.79 Accel = -0.07 GBU.TO Gabriel Resources
11 Score = 16.39 Vel = -0.44 Accel = -0.35 DDRX Diedrich Coffee
12 Score = 16.01 Vel = 5.32 Accel = 0.52 DAL Delta
13 Score = 15.85 Vel = -1.97 Accel = -0.62 KNDI Kandi Tech
14 Score = 15.81 Vel = 5.84 Accel = 0.35 CAGC Agri Tech
15 Score = 15.78 Vel = 0.34 Accel = 0.07 PCLN Priceline
16 Score = 15.78 Vel = 0.34 Accel = 0.07 PCLN Priceline
17 Score = 15.73 Vel = 3.67 Accel = 0.39 TAM TAM Linhas
18 Score = 15.60 Vel = 1.18 Accel = 0.10 IPXL Impax
19 Score = 15.30 Vel = 1.50 Accel = 0.05 MDVN Medivation
20 Score = 15.30 Vel = 1.50 Accel = 0.05 MDVN Medivation
Disclaimer:
The above content and comments are provided for information only and are not recommendations. Each investor must make and be responsible for their own investment decisions.
